गुजरात विधानसभा चुनाव - २०१७ -हारेगा जातिवाद जीतेगा राष्ट्रवाद

(मेरा यह लेख पांचजन्य के २६-११-१७ के अंक में प्रकाशित हुआ)

कर्णावती से जयवंत पंड्या,  साथ में दिल्ली ब्यूरो

गुजरात में चुनावी सरगर्मी जोरों पर है। दोनों ही मुख्य दलों (भाजपा और कांग्रेस) के दिग्गज चुनाव प्रचार में लगे हैं। जहां भाजपा अपनी सरकार के विकास कार्यों और गुजराती अस्मिता के  नाम पर वोट मांग रही है, वहीं कांगे्रस जाति के नाम पर लोगोें को अपने साथ जोड़ने की कोशिश कर रही है और हिंदुओं को यह संदेश देने की कोशिश कर रही है कि अब वह मुस्लिम तुष्टीकरण की राह पर नहीं है। इस सोच को पुख्ता करने के लिए राहुल गांधी आश्रमों, मठों और मंदिरों के चक्कर लगा रहे हैं। लेकिन गुजरात के लोगों का मानना है कि इन सबसे कांग्रेस के पाप नहीं धुलेंगे। उसने पूरे देश में तुष्टीकरण की राजनीति करके अनगिनत पाप किए हैं। गुजरात के लोग कांग्रेस के इन पापों से कई दशक तक परेशान रहे हैं। कर्णावती के मयंक व्यास कहते हैं, ‘‘एक समय कांग्रेस ने तुष्टीकरण की राजनीति करके गुजरात को कर्फ्यू प्रदेश बना दिया था। आए दिन कहीं न कहीं कर्फ्यू लगता था। भाजपा ने इस प्रदेश को कर्फ्यू से बाहर निकालकर विकास के पथ पर आगे बढ़ाया है।’’ 

ऐसी सोच रखने वालों की कोई कमी नहीं है। गांधीनगर के सुरेश पटेल कहते हैं, ‘‘कांग्रेस ने गुजरात को पीछे धकेलने में कोई कसर नहीं छोड़ी थी। यही नहीं, जब नरेंद्र मोदी मुख्यमंत्री थे तब कांग्रेस ने गुजरात के विकास में रोड़ा अटकाने में कोई हिचक नहीं दिखाई थी। उसने बड़ी बेशर्मी के साथ विकास योजनाओं को रोकने का काम  किया था। इसका ज्वलंत उदाहरण है नर्मदा योजना।’’ उल्लेखनीय है कि तत्कालीन केंद्रीय जल संसाधन मंत्री सैफुद्दीन सोज ने अनुचित हस्तक्षेप कर नर्मदा नदी पर बनने वाले सरदार सरोवर बांध की ऊंचाई बढ़ाने का काम अटका दिया था। इस मामले में कांग्रेस के नेता अभी भी झूठ बोल रहे हैं। अभी कुछ दिन पहले पूर्व प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह गुजरात में थे। उन्होंने खुलेआम कहा कि तत्कालीन मुख्यमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी नर्मदा के मुद्दे पर कभी उनसे मिले ही नहीं। इस झूठ से भी गुजरात के लोग नाराज हैं, क्योंकि इस बात के साक्ष्य हैं कि मोदी ने 2006 और 2013 में नर्मदा मुद्दे पर मनमोहन सिंह से बातचीत की थी। लेकिन केंद्र सरकार ने उनकी एक नहीं सुनी। जब मोदी खुद प्रधानमंत्री बने तब उन्होंने नर्मदा बांध की ऊंचाई को बढ़ाने की अनुमति दी थी। आज उस बांध के पानी से गुजरात में विकास के नए अध्याय लिखे जा रहे हैं। मोदी ने महाराष्टÑ और दिल्ली के बराबर गुजरात को गैस के दाम न देने के लिए भी मनमोहन सिंह के समक्ष अपना विरोध जताया था। उस समय महाराष्ट्र और दिल्ली दोनों जगहों पर कॉंग्रेस की सरकारें थीं। 

तत्कालीन केंद्र सरकार के विरोध और बाधाओं के बावजूद गुजरात सरकार ने राज्य के विकास के लिए अनेक काम किए हैं। जनता भी इस बात को महसूस करती है। सौराष्ट्र-कच्छ में नर्मदा का पानी पहुंचाया गया, दाहोद में एशिया का सबसे बड़ा पेट्रोकेमिकल्स संयंत्र लगाया गया, भरुच के पास भारत का सबसे बड़ा केबल ब्रिज बना, घोघा-दाहोद के बीच रॉ-रॉ फेरी सेवा शुरू की गई, लोगों को 24 घंटे बिजली मिल रही है, गांवों से लेकर शहर तक अच्छी सड़कें बनी हैं, और सबसे बड़ी बात है गुजरात में कानून-व्यवस्था का अच्छा होना। अपराधी तत्वों और आतंकवादियों के विरुद्ध सख्त कार्रवाई की गई है। वडोदरा में रहने वाले 60 वर्षीय जीतू भाई कहते हैं, ‘‘कांग्रेस के काल में माफिया और तस्कर पुलिस पर भारी पड़ते थे। उन तत्वों की पहुंच मुख्यमंत्री आवास तक होती थी। ये तत्व व्यापारियों को निशाना बनाते थे। इसलिए उन दिनों सैकड़ों व्यापारी गुजरात छोड़कर मुंबई चले गए थे। भाजपा सरकार ने इन तत्वों को खत्म किया है। इसलिए गुजरात में शांति है।’’ 

गुजरात के लोगों को 2002 के दंगों से पहले के दंगे भी अच्छी तरह याद हैं। कांग्रेस के मुस्लिम तुष्टीकरण ने राज्य को पूरी तरह अशांत बना दिया था। साल के 365 दिन में से लगभग 200 दिन कहीं न कहीं कर्फ्यू लगा रहता था। यह भी कहा जाता था कि गुजरात के बच्चे ‘मां’ बोलना सीखने से पहले ‘कर्फ्यू’ बोलना सीख जाते थे। यहां छबीलदास महेता की सरकार (जो कि गुजरात में कांग्रेस की अंतिम सरकार थी) के समय की एक घटना का उल्लेख करना जरूरी है। चर्चित पुलिस अधिकारी डी. जी. वणझारा ने उस समय के कुख्यात तस्कर इभला शेठ को पकड़ा था। लेकिन गांधीनगर के आदेश के बाद उसे छोड़ दिया गया था और बतौर सजा वणझारा का स्थानांतरण कर दिया गया था। महेता सरकार के तत्कालीन गृह मंत्री नरेश रावल ने सार्वजनिक रूप से कहा था, ‘‘यह सरकार असामाजिक तत्वों द्वारा चलाई जा रही है।’’

गुजरात की जनता काफी चतुर और समाधानवादी मानी जाती है। लेकिन अगर कोई उसे छेड़ता है तो वह उसे छोड़ती भी नहीं है। 2002 में गोधरा नरसंहार के बाद भड़के दंगों को लेकर गुजरातियों को पूरी दुनिया में बदनाम कर दिया गया। ऐसा कहा गया कि दंगों में केवल और केवल मुसलमान मारे गए, जबकि मरने वालों में हिंदू भी थे। कुछ तथाकथित समाजसेवियों ने दुनिया के अनेक देशों में घूम-घूमकर गुजरात के हिंदुओं को ‘मानवभक्षी’ तक कहा था। गोधरा में जिंदा जलाए गए हिंदुओं के बारे में तो पूरी तरह चुप्पी साध ली गई थी। उसी तरह 2007 में अपराधी सोहराबुद्दीन की मुठभेड़ में हुई हत्या को लेकर भी गुजरात को बदनाम किया गया। उसे ‘बेचारा’ बताकर सर्वोच्च न्यायालय तक लड़ाई लड़ी गई। किसी ने उसके आतंक को जानने की कोशिश नहीं की। आतंकी इशरत जहां के मामले में भी गुजरात को बदनाम किया गया। खुफिया एजेंसियों की रपटों को दरकिनार कर उसे ‘निर्दोष’ बताया गया। 

इन सबसे गुजरात के लोगों में गुस्सा बढ़ा और उन्होंने बदनाम करने वालों को पंचायत से लेकर विधानसभा चुनावों तक में पटखनी दी। गुजरातियों की एकता को तोड़ने के लिए ही कांग्रेस ने इस बार जातिवाद की राजनीति शुरू की है। इसी के तहत उसने पाटीदार नेता हार्दिक पटेल, पिछड़े वर्ग के नेता अल्पेश ठाकोर और वंचित समाज से आने वाले और सोच से वामपंथी जिग्नेश मेवाणी को अपने साथ लिया है। लोगों का मानना है कि ये तीनों कांगे्रस की शह पर ही पिछले कुछ साल से गुजरात की भाजपा सरकार के विरुद्ध आंदोलन कर रहे हैं। अब यह स्पष्ट दिखने भी लगा है। इसलिए गुजरातियों को सब कुछ समझ में आने लगा है। तूफानी चुनावी प्रचार के साथ ही गुजरातियों की यह समझ और परिपक्व होती जा रही है। इसलिए लोग कहने लगे हैं कि जातिवाद हारेगा और राष्टÑवाद जीतेगा।    

Gujarat Elections: Impregnable

(This article is published in Organiser magazine 12-11-17 issue)

Finally election commission set ball rolling on last 25^th October. Gujarat is going to have elections in two phases. First phase on 9^th December will see Saurashtra, Kutch and South Gujarat voting on 89 seats. It will cover 19 out of 33 districts. Second phase on 14^th December will be for North Gujarat and Central Gujarat voting on 93 seats in remaining 14 districts. Results will be out on 18^th December 2017.

While it was seen one sided game till Rajya Sabha elections. Congress was facing revolt by its opposition leader in assembly, Shankarsinh Vaghela. His supporters were demanding to declare him CM candidate. Shankarsinhjee was also demanding to declare candidates early so that they could get enough time for campaigning. He sought to implement report prepared by ex defense minister A. K. Antony on wake of debacle in Lok Sabha elections. Posters war began in Congress. Some posters were saying: Bapu aave chhe. (Shankarsinh Vaghela a.k.a. Bapu will be next CM) Some were saying: Bharatsinh Solanki aave chhe.  But Congress high command didn’t succumb to Shankarsinh Vaghela group’s demand. And after one meeting of his supporters on 24^th June, Shankarsinhjee announced he would quit congress on his birthday 21^st July.

Congress mlas who were seemed to be Shankarsinhjee supporter began to defect one by one. 14 mlas resigned from Congress before rajyasabha elections. BJP gave Balwantsinh Rajput, congress mla who defected to BJP ticket of Rajya sabha. He was seen candidate against Congress stalwart Ahmed Patel. Suddenly Congress woke up and hijacked their mlas to Bengaluru five star resort. Agnet of Ahmed Patel and veteran Congress leader Shaktisinh Gohil allegedly played tactics in which Shankarsinh Vaghela group mla Raghavjee Patel and Bholabhai Gohil got trapped. Their two votes were cancelled after a long suspense that continued till mid night involving election commission at Delhi and Gandhinagar. And finally result was out with Ahmed Patel victory by just half vote which is challenged in court by Balwantsinh Rajput.

Dubious Victory

This victory has boosted up Congress moral. North Gujarat was facing flood and heavy rain. While Gujarat CM Vijaybhai Rupani and health minister Shankarbhai Chaudhary were in North Gujarat for five days to help flood victims, while Congress’s 44 mlas were enjoying in Bengaluru hi fi resort. Even though, after victory ‘Vikas Gando thayo chhe’ (Development has gone mad) messages got circulated and anti BJP campaign was peaking up. Rise in Petrol-Diesel prices, loan for Bullet train, very poor condition of roads, GST were being opposed and many people also joined in this campaign allegedly run by Congress I.T. Cell.

Even though, roads are subject of municipalities (which are BJP controlled), BJP national president Amitbhai Shah had to promise roads would be fine till October which showed Congress campaign success. Picture was good for Congress till 21^st October. But it has started changing from the same day. On this day, Alpesh Thakor, who agitated for OBC and SC-ST went to meet Rahul Gandhi at Delhi and declared he would join Congress. Dalit leader Jignesh Mewani also declared he would support Congress. Hardik Patel also gave indications of supporting Congress on same day.

Split support

Thus it was clear that all three agitations were supporting Congress. Hardik Patel who fought for reservation to Patel community in OBC quota suddenly changed his stand and publically told: “No problem, if Congress doesn’t give reservation to Patel, but we will see BJP would not come to power.” He also talked he was ready to see any Dalit or Muslim leader becoming CM but BJP mustn’t come to power.

Similarly, Alpesh Thakor fought for strict implementation of liquor prohibition. But Mohansinh Rathva who became opposition leader in assembly after Shankarsinh Vaghela quit Congress appealed thakor community members to drink liquor if offered by BJP and vote to Congress. It was in presence of Rahul Gandhi and Alpesh Thakor! It was clearly violation of law. Alpesh Thakor didn’t oppose this at that time and even after that rally.

Media showed Hardik Patel secretly meeting allegedly Rahul Gandhi and coming out with begs. BJP alleged that Hardik Patel had secret deal with Congress. Two big PAAS (Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti) leader Varun Patel and Reshma Patel also changed their hearts and joined BJP!

After this sudden change, it seems these agitation have divided Patel and OBC community, specifically Patel community. Before agitation there were two sub castes- Leuva and Kadva. But after Hardik Patel support to Congress, it seems there are two more divisions- PAAS (Pro PAAS) and NaaPAAS (Naapaas means failed but in this case it is anti PASS). Opposition to Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor by their respective communities show that wise members have realized that these leaders, be it Hardik, Varun, Reshma, Alpesh or Jignesh have befooled them on name of communities.

Flimsy Ploys

Allegations by Narendra Patel, PAAS leader that BJP tried to buy him with one crore rupee and after then one audio clip telecasted by media heard Narendra Patel speaking to unknown person about entry of Rs. 25 lakh in his name though he didn’t receive any money. He was telling that Rs25 lakh was described in a diary as a part of the grant received by Mehsana District Panchayat, which was given to PAAS Committee of Mehsana and North Gujarat. He quoted one Pahlaj bhai who told him that he had given the money to three people on receiving a call from the State Congress. Patel was even heard saying that he would speak with state Congress president Bharatsinh Solanki and ask him about who was given the money. Later in the clip, Patel said that he received a call from Patel reservation stir leader Hardik Patel, who asked him not to talk about the matter to anyone, and also asked him not to make an issue of the same.

These events have created bad image for agitators and Congress. Congress is again alleged to play same caste politics. In 1980s, Congress leader Madhavsinh Solanki played KHAM (Kshatriy, Harijan i.e. dalit, Adivasi i.e. tribal and muslim) theory successfully. This time Congress is applying POD theory where P stands for Patidar, O for OBC and D for Dalit.

Chinks In Congress

But taking support of these three young leaders will not be easy task for Congress. After Alpesh Thakor joined Congress, it is said that Congress had to rethink for candidate on 60-70 seats. It was said that Alpesh had a meeting with BJP president Amitbhai Shah where he demanded deputy CM post for his father and 16-18 seats but Amitbhai rejected his offer. So it is clear if Alpesh has joined Congress, Congress must have accepted his demands. And it will create dissatisfaction among Congress leaders. Congress is known for factionalism at times of election and it is one big reason behind its successive four defeats. Two suspected ISIS terrorists were arrested from Surat. BJP alleged that one of the terrorist, Kasim Stimberwala was working as laboratory technician at Sardar Hospital In Ankleshwar. Ahmed Patel was trustee in this hospital. BJP demanding Ahmedbhai’s resignation.

BJP's game

On other hand BJP is also highlighting development work done at center in leadership of PM Narendra Modi and at Gujarat in leadership of ex CM Anandiben Patel and current CM Vijaybhai Rupani. This includes completion of Narmada yojana, Sauni Yojana, Mukhyamantri Yuva Svavalamban Yojana, electricity, irrigation, actions in favour of farmers and tribals, better road connectivity, R0-Ro ferry service between Ghogha-Dahej, bullet train etc.

Election rallies have just started. Model code of conduct is in force since 25^th. Rallies may change whole campaign. Congress is raising same issues like past four elections- i.e. unemployment, poor education facilities, injustice to farmers-dalits-tribals-women, undue favour to 4-5 industrialists. However Rahul Gandhi is adopting new strategy. In past, he/Sonia Gandhi used to come, address rally and then leave. Now Rahul is staying here for three days. He is travelling to villages, talking to farmers, tribals, women, youths. He has accepted he is not good speaker as Narendra Modi is. So he has adopted this strategy.

As this article is being written, Rahul has arrived in south Gujarat. He has visited Saurashtra region and central Gujarat. Narendra Modi has been visiting Gujarat since last one year. He has been here for all development work inauguration or commencement.

It will have to be seen which strategy wins. 

News Channel analysis: If Ram would have been defeated...!

Today is result day for #BiharElections. Results or say trends are out. And MahaGathbandhan has swept Bihar elections. On every news channel analysis is going on in full swing. And as they say, all praise that who wins and criticize defeated person. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are criticized in all possible manner.

A funny thought came in my mind: what would have happened with Shree Ram, our Ishwar, if he would have been defeated by Ravan? Possible analysis of his defeat by our today's news channel expert analyzers.  and disclaimer: This analysis is of News channels type who have started praised NDA in monring when it was ahead with double seats and suddenly started criticizing it. There is intention to hurt anyone's feelings.

1. Shree Ram should not have given up power even though his mother had asked for his vanvaas. Power is every thing and with power you can do good things. His mother was not right in her place. Her demand was unjust and unfair.

2. Shree Ram should not have taken his wife Seeta with him. If seeta would not be there, her kidnapping would not have been happened and so war would not have taken place.  So there was no question of Ram's defeat.

3. Shree Ram didn't follow his father's advice that he should live in near by area to Ayodhya.

4. Shree Ram should not have killed Khar-Dushan, which were brothers of Ravan. Shree Ram invited enmity with Ravan by killing his brothers. (Analyzer conveniently forgets sins of Khar-Dushan.)

5. Shree Ram should have respected a lady Suparnkha. But he ordered to deform her by cutting her nose and ear. This made Ravan angry and that's why he kidnapped Seeta Maata. Otherwise he respected women a lot. (Analyzer conveniently forgets character or charitra of Suparnkha. She tried to seduce Ram and Laxman who were married persons.)

6. Shree Ram should not have sent Hanumanjee as emissary. Hanumanjee burnt Lanka without any reason. He killed so many innocent men, women and children of Lanka. (Analyzer conveniently forgets that Ravan tried to burn Hanumanjee's tail.)

7. Shree Ram should not have taken Vibhishan by his side. Due that he encouraged defaction.Vibhishan was not of any use for Shree Ram. He always misled and misinformed Ram.

and final one.

8. Now due this defeat, Shree Ram has lost claim to rule Ayodhya. 

Reasons why AAP perfromed dramatically in Delhi Elections 2013?

(1) It was born out of anti corruption movement. Arvind Kejriwal was arrested during movement. He exposed so much scams. He dared to expose Robert Vadra, son in law of Sonia Gandhi. He dared to expose scam of Nitin Gadkari. That's why he became hero.
(2) Use of social media extensively. Infact, they used social media as tool from day one and response to Jan Lokpal movement was big due to socia media.
(3) Connected youth. Its founders are all youth, be it Arvind Kejriwal or Manish Sisodia or charming Shazia Ilmi. They appealed to youth. They attracted new age bollywood people like Vishal Dadlani and MTv host Rajeev Laxman.
(4) Founder is with mission. Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia left lucrative jobs like IRS and journalist to fight against corruption. They became ideals. While in other parties, no persons are there who can become ideals. In Congress and BJP, there were such leaders like Lal Bahadur Shastri and Kushabhau Thakre, but at present there is no one.
(5) They raised those issues which no other parties cared about. Congress and BJP both had match fixing like situation in Delhi and at center. Price rise, high power bill, water scarcity were the main issues, but Congress didn't care to solve it. BJP didn't oppose effectivley. Had it not declared Dr. Harshwardhan as CM candidate, BJP could not have become single largest party.
(6) Selection of candidates. They choose candidate having common man background. Like Jarneil Singh who threw shoe at P. Chidambaram. Journalistd Jarnail Singh asked Chidambaram how Jagdish Tytler got clean chit from CBI in 1984 anti sikh riots, after Chidambaram didn't give satisfactory answer, he threw shoe at him. Voters elected him. This shows how much anger is there in public. AAP also selected commando who got injured in 26 November attack on Mumbai.